NWEA Experts Share Education Predictions for the Upcoming School Year

Portland, Ore. — August 6, 2024 NWEA, a K-12 assessment and research organization, shared today a series of back-to-school predictions. What trends or important topics will impact K-12 education this coming school year? NWEA’s expert voices, from policy to research to professional learning, weigh in on what they predict will be key issues facing educators and schools.

Learning gaps will persist if action is not taken

“Achievement disparities that predate the pandemic have been starkly exacerbated over the last four years, and marginalized students are still the furthest from recovery. As we continue to analyze the latest COVID data, I predict that we will see persistent and potentially widening gaps in student achievement if we do not take decisive action. Pandemic fatigue is real, but accepting a new normal of lower achievement and widened inequities is not an option. We must remain committed to using data-driven strategies, providing our schools with the right scale of support, and integrating sustained recovery efforts into our educational framework. Without these efforts, the disparities in our educational system will only become more entrenched, making it even more challenging to achieve lasting change.” – Dr. Karyn Lewis, Director of Research and Policy Partnerships at NWEA

Not just better data, but more connected data

“In this post-COVID and ESSER funding era, single-point-in-time data will lose its relevance if it is not connected to the fuller picture of student academic health. With COVID academic recovery still in progress, access to quality, connected data that provides educators with meaningful, nuanced information will be critical. Today, an average teacher has hundreds of data and curricular tools at their disposal. It’s overwhelming. Not to mention, those tools may often provide conflicting information, often are hard to navigate between and make it hard to truly understand how best to help each student. We can do better. We must continue to innovate, use technology wisely, and provide cohesive, holistic platforms that truly simplify educators’ lives and drive student growth. That’s what you should expect to see from HMH and NWEA.” – Chris Minnich, President of NWEA

Districts will need to find new ways to sustain progress made with ESSER funds

“This school year is the first in nearly half a decade where schools will not have significant additional federal resources to support student learning and continued recovery. ESSER funds, which have, on average, provided a 10% supplement to district budgets, must be fully obligated by September. Unfortunately, despite the sunset of recovery resources, the need for additional support for kids is far from over.  The resources and programs made possible through ESSER funding have greatly benefited our nation’s students and teachers. We’ve learned some important lessons about what works to support student success, and we have a growing national consensus about three evidence-based interventions that we should replicate and scale – combating chronic absenteeism and keeping kids in school, high-dosage tutoring, and expanding learning time through extended school days and summer programs. Given the sluggish nature of recovery, these critical programs must become a permanent part of the fabric of our education system. In the context of diminishing federal funds, a critical challenge for this year will be focusing resources on what matters most for student progress, particularly for those students who are historically underserved and need the most support to reach their full potential.” – Lindsay Dworkin, Senior Vice President, Policy and Government Affairs at NWEA

Chronic absenteeism will continue to be a main focus for districts and families

“Chronic student absenteeism continues to significantly impact our K-12 districts, specifically in relation to student achievement, economic outcomes, and systemic inequities. Additionally, historically marginalized student groups are disproportionately impacted by chronic absenteeism. We know that when students aren’t in school, they are missing valuable instructional time, which sets them back behind their peers. Research has shown that students who do not meet grade levels are more likely to face higher dropout and incarceration rates. As we enter into the 2024-25 school year, it is increasingly important that we prioritize student attendance. There isn’t a one-size-fits-all solution. We must connect with students and their families to understand the barriers students are facing that are preventing them from attending school. Likewise, we must raise awareness with families on how much impact missing school is on their child’s future.” Ayesha Hashim, Ph.D. Senior Research Scientist at NWEA

Student engagement will take high priority

“As schools and districts consider new, innovative assessment approaches, it is essential to consider not only the content of the assessments but also various contextual factors, such as the timing of the tests. Research indicates that the time of day when tests are administered can significantly impact student engagement and performance. Administering tests at suboptimal times can lead to student disengagement, which in turn may result in an underestimation of their true abilities and potentially misguide educational interventions. By prioritizing the timing of assessments, educators can help maintain student focus and enhance the overall accuracy and effectiveness of these evaluations. Ensuring that tests are conducted at times when students are most alert and receptive can contribute to a more accurate reflection of their capabilities, supporting more informed decision-making in educational planning and interventions.” – Megan Kuhfeld, PhD, Director of Growth Modeling and Analytics at NWEA

Districts will increase their use of assessment data to help identify students’ individual needs

“Students are coming into K-12 classrooms with a wide variety of needs. In the 2024-25 school year, we will see districts making use of the already available data to help identify students who need more support and those who could benefit from more challenging courses and gifted programs. Standardizing the process for identifying students opens doors for historically underserved students who could benefit from additional services whether full-grade acceleration or intensive interventions. Currently, both students who need support and those who could benefit from higher level math and gifted programs are being missed by identification systems. We will see districts increasing their use of already available assessment data to help identify students’ needs. Properly utilizing data that are already available to schools is a step in a more equitable direction.” – Scott Peters, PhD, Director of Research Consulting at NWEA

Out-of-school programs will become crucial for post-pandemic academic recovery

“Out-of-school time programs, including after-school and summer learning, have played a pivotal role in addressing academic recovery by providing targeted support to students who missed learning opportunities during the pandemic. Recent NWEA data shows that academic growth in the 2023-24 school year continued to lag behind pre-pandemic trends, suggesting that the need for sustainable and effective out-of-school time programs remains critical. Policymakers and school districts must collaborate to develop innovative funding solutions and strategic partnerships to promote the success and expansion of these vital learning opportunities. By investing in out-of-school time programs, schools can create comprehensive support systems that address not only academic needs but also the social and emotional well-being of students. By providing individualized attention and personalized learning experiences, out-of-school time programs are crucial for helping students recover from the educational setbacks caused by the pandemic.” Miles Davison, PhD, Research Scientist at NWEA

High-dosage tutoring will become a critical academic recovery strategy in the post-COVID era

“High-dosage tutoring (HDT) has garnered significant attention over the past several years as a vital strategy for aiding students in their academic recovery following the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Research has demonstrated that HDT programs can produce gains in reading and math test scores for at-risk students (if implemented appropriately); and are effective for building foundational skills in elementary grades, and can aid struggling middle and high school students. As the education system continues to grapple with the lingering impacts of the pandemic, the proportion of at-risk students has risen, underscoring the ongoing need for targeted academic interventions. HDT presents a promising solution by providing intensive, personalized instruction that addresses individual learning gaps and fosters academic resilience. To maximize the benefits of HDT, it is essential to ensure that programs are designed and executed with key principles in mind: maintaining small tutor-to-student ratios, offering frequent and consistent sessions, and employing highly trained tutors who can deliver effective, research-based instructional strategies. Additionally, integrating HDT programs within the broader educational framework can enhance their impact, ensuring that tutoring complements regular classroom instruction and aligns with curriculum standards. Last but not least, the success of HDT also hinges on robust funding and strategic implementation. Policymakers and educational leaders must prioritize investments in HDT initiatives and seek innovative funding solutions to sustain these programs over the long term.” Ayesha Hashim, PhD, Senior Research Scientist at NWEA

Engaging with and informing parents and families will be vital to academic recovery efforts

“There continues to be a disconnect between how students are doing academically and how parents think their children are doing in school. In the 2024-2025 school year, we will need to bridge gaps between school and home to engage parents in academic recovery efforts. By engaging with families to help them understand their children’s academic progress and what the data means for their child, we can partner with families on interventions and help students get back on track. There will be an increased focus on making data accessible and applicable so that parents not only understand what the data means but also have actionable next steps to take to help support their children’s progress.” Jacob Bruno, SVP of Professional Learning at NWEA

About NWEA

NWEA® (a division of HMH) is a mission-driven organization that supports students and educators in more than 146 countries through research, assessment solutions, policy and advocacy, and professional learning that support our diverse educational communities. Visit NWEA.org to learn more about how we’re partnering with educators to help all kids learn.

Contact: Simona Beattie, Communications Director, simona.beattie@nwea.org or 971.361.9526